2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 14 ... Dec. 5 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Big East Championship - Cincinnati at Pitt
West Virginia (8-3) at Rutgers (8-3),12:00 EST, Saturday, December 5
Why to watch: Both Rutgers and West Virginia will close out the regular season riding a positive vibe and looking to improve their bowl positioning. The Scarlet Knights dominated Louisville on the road Friday, 34-14, rebounding from an ugly loss to Syracuse a week earlier. Not only are they eyeing a possible 10-win season, but also a first win over the Mountaineers since 1994. Rutgers has lost 14 in-a-row in this series, a level of futility that hasn’t been missed by the players or the staff. West Virginia is coming off its biggest win of the year, a 19-16 nail-biter over rival Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. After trudging through the season without a signature moment, the ‘eers took particular delight in handing the hated Panthers their first defeat in two months.
Why West Virginia might win: Didn’t Rutgers just have all kinds of problems handling a banged-up Syracuse defense? The Scarlet Knights have been spotty up front all year, ranking 113th nationally in pass protection, and will really have problems with a fast and feisty Mountaineer D. West Virginia is allowing only 20 points a game, excelling in both run and pass defense. The front seven, primarily DE Julian Miller, DT Scooter Berry, and linebackers J.T. Thomas, Reed Williams, and Pat Lazear, will be a handful for that questionable Rutgers offensive line. As unflappable as rookie Tom Savage has been, like any young quarterback, he’ll make mistakes when he feels too much heat.
Why Rutgers might win: Unlike many of the times during the losing streak against West Virginia, the Scarlet Knights will not be facing a scary, explosive offense. On the contrary, the Mountaineers have been downright average since the midseason, averaging just a shade over 20 points a game. While still explosive, the hits have begun to accumulate for RB Noel Devine, and QB Jarrett Brown hasn’t been dangerous in over two months. Rutgers has the talent up front and the nation’s No. 16 run defense to contain Devine and make Brown win the game. Scott Vallone and Charlie Noonan are stout in the middle of the line, getting lots of support from LB Ryan D’Imperio, and ends George Johnson and Alex Silvestro.
Who to watch: Get a load of Greg Schiano successfully implementing the Wildcat formation at Rutgers late in the season. After flirting with the system at times during the year, the Scarlet Knights unleashed WR Mohamed Sanu on Louisville last week. All the true freshman did was rush for 148 yards and two scores on 18 carries. Besides Savage, feature back Joe Martinek, and homerun hitting WR Tim Brown, Sanu is just one more weapon for the West Virginia defense to worry about.
What will happen: Is this the year that the Scarlet Knights finally break the spell of the Mountaineers? They’ll have their chances in a game that promises to be close, low scoring, and dominated by the defenses and special teams. Not a whole lot separates these two programs, so home field advantage and motivation will be factors. While Rutgers desperately wants to break through, West Virginia will suffer a slight hangover from the emotional win over Pittsburgh, losing for a third straight time away from Morgantown.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 23 … West Virginia 20 ... Line: West Virginia -2
Must See Rating: (Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show 5 … Avatar 1) … 3.5
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South Florida (7-4) at Connecticut (6-5),8:00 EST, ESPN2, Saturday, December 5
Why to watch: Although it took a while to get going this season and get over the hump, Connecticut appears to be hitting its stride at a most opportune time. A week after upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend, 33-30, the Huskies ambushed Syracuse, 56-31, for their biggest offensive outburst in more than four years. A third straight win before the postseason begins would be a nice finishing touch on an otherwise painful campaign. South Florida continues to be harder to figure than the tax code, often zigging when it looks as if it might zag. Take last weekend, for instance. Just when it looked as if the Bulls might force their way into the state’s Big 3 programs, it goes out and gets paddled at home by Miami, 31-10. After beginning the season 5-0, including an upset of Florida State, Jim Leavitt’s team is going through its typical second-half swoon, dropping four of the last six.
Why South Florida might win: The Bulls have more overall speed than the Huskies, especially on the defensive side of the ball. A running game alone won’t be enough to get past a defense that boasts Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie up front, Kion Wilson at linebacker, and Nate Allen and Jerome Murphy in the secondary. Has anyone noticed that the Connecticut D hasn’t been up to its usual standards, allowing at least 28 points in each of the last five games and really laboring in pass defense? While still raw, there could be an opening for South Florida QB B.J. Daniels to have a big night at the Huskies’ expense.
Why Connecticut might win: If there’s been a crease in the South Florida defense lately, it’s been stopping the run. On Saturday, for example, a depleted Miami offensive line blew the Bulls back off the ball, gaining 240 yards on the ground. That’s a bad omen heading into this weekend’s game. The Huskies have been dominant of late on the ground, battering the opposition with the one-two tandem of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon, who’ll both go over 1,000 yards this fall. They’ll control the tempo of the game, frustrating and wearing down the South Florida defense. While the Husky D has been unusually vulnerable this season, it remains a smart unit that give problems to a rookie quarterback, like Daniels.
Who to watch: The South Florida offensive line was brutal a week ago, making unforced errors and failing to stop the Hurricane pass rush. A similar performance could be coming this week in East Hartford. Connecticut likes to get after the passer, using DE Lindsey Witten and DT Twyon Martin in the traditional way and LB Lawrence Wilson in blitz packages. If Daniels is forced out of the pocket, his propensity for mistakes goes up markedly.
What will happen: South Florida has never had much success playing in the Northeast at this time of year. It’s not about to change that trend now. The Bulls blew through all of their adrenaline a week ago and have nothing to show for it. They’ll be ripe for a Connecticut team that has some momentum and a couple of talented backs, who’ll steal the spotlight with 175 yards and two touchdowns between them.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 30 … South Florida 21 ... Line: Connecticut -7
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